Prisen på guld nåede et historisk højdepunkt i april og forbliver tæt på denne værdi. Conventional investing wisdom puts gold as a “safe-haven” asset – one that investors move towards in times of crises as they desert higher-risk assets such as stocks. Men i august ramte S&P 500 aktieindekset også et rekordhøjt niveau, og ligesom guld er det også tæt på denne værdi.

Historisk set ville de, der følger disse markeder, have forventet, at guld- og aktiekurserne ville bevæge sig i modsatte retninger. Dette producerede typisk guldets "afdækningseffekt" - det ville opveje tab (og gevinster) fra aktier.

But while “safe” gold and “risky” stocks rise at the same time, the value of gold as a more secure bet in times of strife could be diminishing.

Looking at the price of gold historically shows that it rose in response to the oil price shocks of the 1970s as the global economy fell towards recession. Det faldt i slutningen af 1990'erne, da aktiemarkederne boomede, og da den globale økonomi kom sig efter 2009.

Men siden dette tidspunkt har det vist en bane, der stort set er fælles med aktier. New research I was involved in looked at several reasons these traditionally opposing forces have been converging – and causing gold’s safe-haven effect to fade.

Right now, the global economy is emerging from a period of high inflation and high interest rates. Central banks are reducing interest rates (with more cuts expected), which will encourage household spending and business investment.

Økonomiske væksttal er generelt stigende, ligesom virksomhedernes indtjening. Og der er positiv stemning i økonomier om potentialet ved kunstig intelligens og dets rolle i vækst og produktivitet. Together, these factors explain the rise in stock markets.

But geopolitical risks, especially involving Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East (specifically Iran and attacks by Houthis in the Red Sea) are causing concern for stocks and the wider economy. Begge dele kan have betydelige effekter på store internationale råvarer (såsom olie- og fødevarepriser).

And there is risk too from US president Donald Trump’s trade policies. This is especially true given his unpredictability, with tariffs increased and then paused before being reinstated at different levels to those previously announced.

Både disse fjendtligheder og Trumps handelspolitik skaber risiko og usikkerhed i den internationale økonomi. Dette ville forklare, hvorfor investorer kunne overveje at købe guld – hvilket gør det mere værdifuldt.

But this does not fully explain why it is so much in demand and trading close to its all-time high. For at forstå dette skal vi se lidt længere tilbage.

Stigende efterspørgsel

After the dotcom crash in the early 2000s, commodities like gold began to be treated (and traded) like other financial assets. Key in this was the development of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with the first gold ETF launched in 2004. These allow investors to essentially buy a share in gold.

Since then, the number of gold ETFs has risen dramatically, especially after the global financial crisis. Now gold may be traded like any other asset and can become a staple of investment portfolios. Demand for these funds has been surging recently.

On top of this, the US dollar’s status as the world’s currency is under threat. Currently, it acts as a reserve currency for central banks and the vehicle for trade and international payments, including for major commodities. But some countries have increasingly questioned this status quo, considering whether they should trade commodities like oil in their own currencies.

Trump, and the uncertainty he causes, only makes these calls grow louder. As such, these doubts about the status of the dollar have led central banks to buy more gold as an alternative reserve asset.

Since the end of the global financial crisis in 2009 and especially for the past ten years, gold has broadly followed the same path as stocks. Selvom der altid vil være afvigelser, betyder dette reelt en ende på guld som en sikker havn for at sikre mod aktiekursfald.

Gold is now firmly established as another investment asset, along with stocks, bonds and other commodities. Det betyder, at dets investeringsrolle i disse dage er som en del af en diversificeret portefølje og ikke som en hedge.

Men dermed ikke sagt, at guld har mistet sin tiltrækningskraft. Its limited supply and desirability for both jewellery and manufacturing are rare and valuable attributes. And with its intrinsic worth recognised all over the world, gold is likely to remain in demand.